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Monday, March 19, 2012
The Reds won their Monday afternoon exhibition game by a 1-0 score. The run scored in the 9th inning. Homer Bailey tossed four scoreless innings, the fifth straight starter to turn in a solid performance. Relievers Nick Masset, Ron Mahay, Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek, and Carlos Fisher each pitched a scoreless inning. The single run was scored by Daryl Jones and driven in by Wilson Valdez. Only four Reds hits, two by Zack Cozart. Cozart had the only extra-base hit, a double. | Sunday, March 18, 2012
The Reds lost their Sunday game to Arizona in one big inning. Mike Leake gave up one run in four innings of work, then Sean Marshall pitched a scoreless frame. Clay Zavada came in for the sixth and had nothing, giving up three hits and three walks, and all six runners scored. That resulted in an 8-7 final. Scott Rolen and Todd Frazier homered. Zack Cozart had two hits. Paul Janish and Brandon Phillips had doubles. Phillips, Willie Harris, and Daryl Jones stole bases. | The Reds made their first roster cuts today, trimming 16 players from the major league camp and sending them to the minor league side. They are: C Tucker Barnhart and Brian Esposito 1B Kyle Lutz and IF Didi Gregorius, Kris Negron, Henry Rodriguez, and Neftali Soto. P Nick Christiani, Daniel Corcino, Sean Gallagher, Donnie Joseph, Josh Judy, Kyle Lotzkhar, Chad Reineke, Brett Tomko, and Pedro Villarreal. Some of them were minor leaguers on the 40-man roster, others were non-roster invitees. None were true candidates to make the team, at least not this year. Some of them will be with the Reds later in 2012. Several, especially Gregorius, made good impressions this spring that will last a long time. | Saturday, March 17, 2012
The Reds beat the Cleveland Indians in their Saturday afternoon exhibition, getting a spring win streak going. The final score was 9-2. Bronson Arroyo gave up just one run over four innings of work. Five relievers then pitched an inning each: Logan Ondrusek, Ron Mahay, Jose Arredondo, Kanekoa Texiera, and Andrew Brackman. Mahay gave up an unearned run. Chris Valaika, Zack Cozart, and Chris Heisey had two hits each. Brandon Phillips homered. Cozart had two triples. Willie Harris doubled. Heisey stole two bases and Devin Mesoraco one. | There's a new release of the Out of the Park game coming in April. OOTP13 is all-new and improved and hitting stores to coincide with the start of the season, and a new iOOTP for your mobile device is due as well. It's my favorite baseball game for the computer, a rich environment for managing and building a team over history as well as simulating the current or any other historical season. It's a sim, not an arcade game, though you can play it as such if you want. I like to take a team through many years of history and try to build a dynasty. You can make trades, sign free agents, set your lineups, then watch the results play out on the field. I have found it quite addicting. The website is here. I highly recommend it. | The Reds broke a spring slump to defeat Colorado in Friday night exhibition action by a 4-3 score. Mat Latos pitched four scoreless innings in his start, Brett Tomko continued with three scoreless, then Carlos Fisher spoiled the karma by giving up three runs in two innings, but kept the game. Drew Stubbs hit a three-run homer and Denis Phipps doubled for the Cincinnati offense. Stubbs also stole a base. | Thursday, March 15, 2012
The Reds lost their Thursday exhibition to the Angels by a score of 3-1. Johnny Cueto gave up two runs in four innings, Sean Marshall pitched a shutout frame, then Jeff Francis gave up one run in three innings. The Reds had only four hits, two by Denis Phipps, both doubles. | The Reds are in a spring training slump, losing another game in their night tilt with Los Angeles on Wednesday. Homer Bailey got knocked around pretty good, giving up six runs in 2 1/3 innings. The Cincinnati offense got just six hits, headed by a double for Paul Janish. | Wednesday, March 14, 2012
The Reds lost a Wednesday exhibition game to San Diego by a 9-4 score. Aroldis Chapman started and gave up just one run in three innings. Jose Arredondo then gave up four runs in one inning of work, and Ron Mahay three in his inning. The minor leaguers added four bullpen innings. Willie Harris had two hits including a double. | Tuesday, March 13, 2012
The Reds lost their Tuesday exhibition to Kansas City. Mike Leake gave up four runs in three innings, Nick Christiani one in one, Sam Lecure one in three, and Sean Gallagher a scoreless frame. Jay Bruce had two hits, including a homer. Willie Harris doubled. | Monday, March 12, 2012
The Reds lost their Monday exhibition to the Cubs. Bronson Arroyo got knocked around for four runs in two innings, but Josh Judy followed with a scoreless inning, as did Sean Marshall, then Chad Reineke followed with two scoreless. Then Carlos Fisher gave up three runs in his inning, and Andrew Brackman walked two and gave up a run in one frame. Todd Frazier homered, Ryan Ludwick and Zack Cozart had doubles. | Happy birthday to Jose Arredondo, turning 28 today as we wrap up our Roster Look series with him. He was picked up by the Reds last year working his way back from arm surgery and turned in a 3.23 ERA in 53 innings. The Reds expect bigger things going forward. Cincinnati's bullpen was augmented over the offseason with the addition of Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall, but you still need quality middle relievers. Arredondo had some control issues last year with 31 walks in those 53 innings, but the first year off surgery is the toughest for that. His control should sharpen, and he will audition this year for the 2012 setup job. Arredondo's stuff is sharp and he provides quality depth in the bullpen. A stronger showing in 2012 could lead to a bigger role in 2013. | Tall, lanky curveballer Bronson Arroyo had a terrible year in 2011. He came down with mono, tried to work through it, and had a horrible first half before recovering in the second. Credit to him for trying to fight through it, but one wonders if he shouldn't have just shut it down for six weeks, since rest is the only cure, and picked up from there. At any rate, Arroyo's velocity was down and it showed in the results, a 9-12 record and 5.07 ERA that owed a lot to 46 home runs given up. Arroyo has long been susceptible to the long ball when he hangs a curve, but 31 was his previous high. His velocity is reported to be back near previous levels this spring, so look for him to be close to normal in 2012. At 35 Arroyo is the veteran in the Cincinnati rotation and is written in as the #3 starter. It's a role he can more than adequately fill if he returns to previous levels of performance. His 4.28 career ERA would be a good benchmark. If Arroyo hits that, it will steady the staff considerably. | Homer Bailey is at a crossroads. He has as much potential as any Cincinnati Reds pitcher, but has shown only brief flashes of achieving it. He was 9-7 with a 4.43 ERA in 22 starts last year, which is adequate, but he frustrates by showing the ability to do so much more. Bailey is 25, turning 26 in May, and one wonders at what point the Reds will decide to "cut bait" with him. It's tough to give up on a pitcher with such stuff and potential. There are whispers that Bailey has a poor work ethic, that his effort toward conditioning and preparation are short of what an elite starter needs. Others have wondered if Bailey's stuff would play better in the bullpen, but the word there is that he takes too long to warm up to be effective in relief. Previously his main problem had been control, but in 2011 it was being too homer-prone. If he can keep his strike-throwing ways from last year while keeping the ball in the park Bailey could take a step forward. For now he is slated as the #5 starter. He has no minor league options left, so if something happens, Bailey is most likely to be traded before the season starts. | Sunday, March 11, 2012
The Reds defeated the Angels 5-4 in their Sunday exhibition. Mat Latos gave up two runs in three innings, but Brett Tomko pitched two scoreless innings, then Jose Arredondo, Kanekoa Texiera, and Ron Mahay each threw a scoreless frame before Logan Ondrusek gave up two runs in the last one. Dioner Navarro had two hits and two RBI. Navarro, Devin Mesoraco, and Scott Rolen each had a double. | Saturday, March 10, 2012
The Reds lost the Saturday exhibition game to the A's by a 6-3 score. Johnny Cueto had a rough start, but Jeff Francis gave up just one run in three innings. Juan Francisco and Denis Phipps had two hits each. Francisco doubled and stole a base. Phipps also had a double. Former Reds Jonny Gomes and Adam Rosales appeared for the A's. | Tucker Barnhart is a minor league catcher for the Reds, a native of Indianapolis drafted by Cincinnati in the 10th round in 2009. Just 21, he is well short of the majors, but spring training requires a numbers of catchers on hand. Barnhart is rated an excellent defensive catcher by scouts. He batted .208 in 14 Gulf Coast League games in 2009, then .306 in 35 games at Billings in 2010. He took his first full-season league spot at Dayton in 2011 and hit .278. He hasn't shown much power, but has drawn some walks and avoided striking out a great deal. Chances are he will be a backup catcher type, but he is young enough to still develop with the bat. Look for him in Bakersfield in 2012, and a couple of years down the road he could take over from Ryan Hanigan as the backup to Devin Mesoraco. With a break or two, he could turn out better than that. | Andrew Brackman is a very tall (6'10") Cincinnati native with a hot fastball and control problems. The NC State alum was originally drafted by the Yankees in the first round of the 2007 draft, but let go by the team when he did not develop as hoped. Now 26, he will try to reach the majors again with his hometown team. Brackman pitched 2 1/3 innings last year for the Yanks, not giving up any runs and only one hit, but walking three. He's walked 190 in 343 minor league innings. He's also struck out 304, which keeps hopes alive. Brackman's only real minor league success was at double-A Trenton in 2010, where in 14 starts he posted a 3.01 ERA. Still, scouts everywhere look at him and see the potential. It's a chance worth taking, though Brackman figures to spend the season at Louisville. If he can get those long arms and legs into a rhythm for a repeatable delivery.....well, then, the Reds will have something. | Friday, March 09, 2012
The Reds split their Friday split-squad games, beating KC at home but losing to SF on the road. The Reds lost 6-3 to the Giants, though Aroldis Chapman started off with two scoreless innings. Todd Frazier homered, while Ryan Ludwick, Wilson Valdez, and Danny Dorn hit doubles. Back home in Goodyear, the Reds beat the Royals 5-1. Homer Bailey started off with three scoreless innings, Josh Judy followed with two more. Pedro Villarreal gave up one run in two innings, Andrew Brackman and Nick Christiani tossed a scoreless frame each. Donald Lutz homered and drove in three. | The Reds beat the Brewers 8-6 in their Thursday exhibition game. Juan Francisco hit a two-run homer, Chris Heisey hit an RBI triple, Didi Gregorius also tripled, Paul Janish and Todd Frazier hit doubles. Gregorius, Daryl Jones, and Denis Phipps had two hits each. Carlos Fisher pitched two scoreless innings and Sean Gallagher hurled three scoreless frames. | Wednesday, March 07, 2012
The Reds lost their Wednesday exhibition game to the Padres by a 5-0 score. Bronson Arroyo started and gave up one run in three innings. Cincinnati got just three hits, one each by Scott Rolen, Juan Francisco, and Jay Bruce, with Rolen and Bruce contributing doubles. | Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Arm trouble has reduced Bill Bray from an all-purpose lefty reliever to a specialist, a one-out guy. He pitched in 79 games last year, but only 48 1/3 innings. He was effective in that role, posting a 2.98 ERA. He will return to that duty in 2012, working to lefty hitters in the 6th and 7th innings. Bray recorded 44 strikeouts and 14 unintentional walks last year, and at age 28 (29 in June) should be settling into a long career as a lefty middle guy. It's a niche market, but one that is appreciated by baseball managers. Bray will be the man for the job. | Jay Bruce is a big part of the Reds' plans. They signed him to a long-term contract to be a cornerstone, and the soon-to-be 25-year old can be a power base for some time. He also plays an excellent right field. Now he just needs to grow into a building block. Bruce hit .281 in 2010, 32 homers and 97 RBI in 2011, slipped from an 846 OPS in 2010 to 814 in 2011. He'll need to bounce back, and work his way toward being a 900 OPS guy. Sure, 1000 would be better, but one step at a time. While Dusty Baker will try to keep Bruce in the fifth spot, putting a right-handed hitter between Bruce and Joey Votto, Bruce is likely to emerge as the cleanup hitter. And the Reds need him to. He has 100 career home runs and he isn't 25 yet. This young man has a chance to be a real star. The sooner the better for Cincinnati and pennant aspirations. | The Reds lost an exhibition game for the first time in 2012, dropping one to the Seattle Mariners by an 8-6 score. Donald Lutz and Denis Phipps hit home runs for the Reds. Mat Latos tossed two scoreless innings to start off the game. | Monday, March 05, 2012
As a 220-pound veteran, Miguel Cairo is not a wiry second baseman any more. At 37, turning 38 in May, he is a corner infielder and "veteran presence" on the second year of a two-year contract. He's also been a league-average hitter the last two years for the Reds, a better outcome than they had any right to expect. In 245 AB during 2011, Cairo batted .265 with 8 homers and a 742 OPS. He figures to again get most of his playing time at third base, with a game or two spelling Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, who rarely sit. He will also pinch-hit. Dusty Baker likes veterans to pinch-hit. Cairo is not likely to return to the Reds in 2013, and may have trouble finding a job elsewhere given his age. He's given the Reds his all for two years and that is unlikely to change in 2012. | The tall, lanky Cuban throws as hard if not harder than anyone on planet Earth. He has been clocked at up to 105 miles per hour on a pitch. The question is whether Aroldis Chapman can attain the consistency needed to be a top pitcher in the major leagues. Arm strength is not in question. Chapman has now pitched in 69 major league games, all in relief. He has a 3.27 ERA for those games. The concern is that, in 2011, he walked 41 in 50 innings of work, while striking out 71. He also gave up just 24 hits, but the control is a weakness. Can he get the ball over the plate consistently? Cincinnati is now thinking that he has a better chance to gain control as a starting pitcher, so he will spend spring training trying to stretch out his arm. It's a good plan, considering his talent level and the money in his contract. The 24-year old may start the season in the minor leagues to finish the process. Any scenario ends with him pitching for the big club for the majority of the season. Whether that ends up being in the rotation or the bullpen, the Reds are counting on the skill of that left arm. | Nick Christiani is a short right-handed pitcher out of New Jersey drafted by the Reds in the 13th round of the 2009 draft. He has pitched only out of the bullpen, and was doing pretty well in the minors until he got to Louisville last year. Christiani has gone through the minors with good if unspectacular strikeout rates and impressively low walk rates. In 20 games of relief at Carolina last year, he posted a 1.75 ERA. Called up to the Bats, he was 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA in 33 games. In 36 innings he struck out just 19 while walking 13 unintentionally. Christiani's stuff is not truly impressive and he won't be a big producer in the majors. At age 24, 25 in July, he's pretty much what you see. He's likely to go back to Louisville in 2012 and see if he can master the level before he gets a chance to go any farther. | The Reds A squad beat Cleveland 12-7 today in spring training action. Jay Bruce had two hits, including a double. Corky Miller homered. Chris Heisey, Todd Frazier, and Didi Gregorius also doubled. Heisey, Frazier, and Paul Janish also stole bases. Jeff Francis had the best pitching performance with two scoreless innings. The Reds B squad also won, beating Seattle 4-1. Gregorius, who had a busy day, drove in two runs with a triple. Daniel Corcino, Kyle Lotzkar, and Pedro Villarreal had two hitless, scoreless innings each. | Sunday, March 04, 2012
Every time you see a story about Daniel Corcino, it references Johnny Cueto. That stems from the similarities between the two: short Dominican right-handers with stocky builds and good stuff. If Corcino can develop like Cueto, the Reds would really have something. Corcino is very young, just 21, and had a solid season with Dayton last year at age 20: 11-7 in 26 starts with a 3.42 ERA. He struck out 156 in 139 inning with but 34 walks. That kind of performance will play anywhere. Corcino will go to Class-A Bakersfield, and given his youth will probably spend the whole year there, with perhaps a late callup to double-A. The Reds will want to be careful not to rush the youngster. The current signs on him are all encouraging. | The Reds won their Sunday exhibition with the Indians by an 8-6 score. Miguel Cairo and Zack Cozart each had two hits, Dioner Navarro hit a homer. | Zack Cozart has been handed the Cincinnati shortstop job: there is no veteran looking over his shoulder. Whether he holds it or drops it will be a big part of the Reds' 2012 story. The Tennessee native and Ole Miss alum will be the designated shortstop solution for the new season. He was the 2011 solution for 11 games, batting .324 before getting hurt and missing the rest of the season. He hit two homers and showed good defense, raising hopes for the new start. The cautions are that Cozart, while he has done fine overall, is a .270 hitter in the minors. He was hitting .310 with Louisville last year when called up, but has mostly been a decent offensive player, albeit with some power and speed. Cozart certainly looks like a better hitting prospect than Paul Janish, with about the same defense. Reds fans should not expect Cozart to hit .324 for a season, but .250 with a dozen homers and some steals is a reasonable expectation. If he can do that, or a little better, that will take care of SS for now. | Saturday, March 03, 2012
Johnny Cueto ended 2011 as the ace of the Cincinnati pitching staff. A 2.31 ERA in 24 starts earned him the status, and he is slated to be the Opening Day starter for 2012. He was a bit hit-lucky last year, and figures to fall off that level, but he is still a good pitcher. Cueto has improved every year in the majors, and lacks just durability to be a true ace. The Reds will need Cueto to develop into a 15-win, 200 inning guy to reach the postseason this year. It's a tall order for the short Dominican, but he has the stuff, the control, certainly the talent. At 26, the Reds will look for him to take a lead role. Health is the big question: will Cueto's arm hold up? | Brian Esposito is a veteran minor league catcher, picked up by the Reds for some depth this year. Someone has to catch all those pitchers in spring training as they warm up, and someone has to fill up the minor league rosters. The 33-year old Esposito is one of those guys. Esposito has three major league at-bats, all in 2010, with the Astros. No hits. He's played 724 minor league games in 12 seasons of minor league ball, with a .216 career average. Lucky for him he's got a good defensive reputation. I make Esposito out to be the double-A backup catcher this year. In a dire emergency, he get a major league call for a brief period. No long-term usage. | The Reds and Indians opened the exhibition season today with a 6-6 tie. Neftali Soto and Todd Frazier hit home runs, Joey Votto and Drew Stubbs each had a double. Lots of people got the chance to get some field time under real competition conditions. That's a victory. | Friday, March 02, 2012
Carlos Fisher was waived by the Reds but re-signed to a minor league deal. Fisher is 29 and he is what he is: a reasonably durable right-handed reliever without great stuff. He has a career major league ERA of 4.74 in 99 innings: that's Fisher in a nutshell. In those 99 innings he has 86 strikeouts and 55 walks. He would be a suitable middle reliever for any major league team. It's just that with the Reds there doesn't seem to be much space. It's a shame, really, because this is a guy who could have a decent career. There's still time for it to happen. | The Reds signed veteran Jeff Francis to a minor league deal this offseason. Francis is a left-handed pitcher and Canadian drafted by the Rockies in the first round of the 2002 draft. He has a 61-66 lifetime record in the majors. His best year was a 17-victory season in 2007, but shoulder troubles followed, and surgery kept him out for all of 2009. 2010 was a rough season, and the Rockies let him go as a free agent. Francis signed with Kansas City, and was just 6-16 though with a respectable 4.82 ERA. He has never been a particularly hard thrower, he's one of those "finesse lefties" with good control who tries to keep the ball down. Francis is a bit of a longshot to make the starting rotation, but with an injury or two he could be in the mix. The question is whether he will stay with the Reds if he does not make the team out of camp. They could certainly use him for pitching depth if he would go to Louisville for awhile. At 31, he's not young, so he will want to maximize his major league time. | The Reds played a two-inning intrasquad game today, getting some live swings in game conditions. The only run scored on a homer by Todd Frazier. | Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Dominican native Juan Francisco is a big fellow, standing six-foot-two and listed at 245 pounds. He can hit a baseball a long way. The question about Francisco is more about how often he can hit the baseball rather than how far. Francisco has often blistered minor league pitching, with 112 home runs in 603 minor league games. He has also struck out 591 times in those games, and never walked more than 24 times in a season. He's a hacker of the first order. Last year in 74 games at Louisville he hit .307 with 15 homers and 50 RBI while striking out 50 times and walking 15. In 93 AB in the majors last year he hit .258 with 3 homers. He now has 169 major league AB with a .284 average and 781 OPS. It is an open question whether he will hold up to regular play as pitchers get a chance to exploit the holes in his swing. Can Francisco's power overcome his swing-at-all-costs tendency? History suggests that it can't. Defense is another problem. His major league stats, a decidedly small sample size, do not reflect well on his fielding skills. He may not be mobile enough to play the hot corner. Francisco is out of options, so he will likely be on the team all year. His job would be to back up veteran Scott Rolen at third base. For forty or fifty games Francisco may do all right: it's when he gets up into more regular play that his batting average may plummet. | New Jersey native and Rutgers alum Todd Frazier was picked by the Reds in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft, the 34th overall pick. He has struggled more the higher he has risen through the minors. Frazier may just not have enough talent to succeed in the majors. In triple-A ball in 2010 Frazier hit .258 with 17 homers and 14 steals. At the same level in 2011 he hit .260 with 15 homers and 17 steals in 90 games. In 41 games with the big club Frazier hit .232 with six homers. He played mostly third base, and did a pretty good job. He's 26 now and if he has a future it is as a bench player. The Reds have used Frazier at a variety of positions all over the infield and outfield. It looks unlikely that he will hit enough in the major to be a regular, so that's his ticket: versatility. | Sean Patrick Gallagher, born in Boston. What could be more Irish than that? He went to high school in Fort Lauderdale, and was drafted by the Cubs in the 12th round of the 2004 draft. He signed a minor league contract as a free agent with the Reds in the offseason. Gallagher has pitched 207 major league innings and has a 10-10 record and a 5.64 ERA to show for it. He did not pitch in the majors in 2011, spending the year with Indianapolis in the Pittsburgh organization, posting a 5-12 record and 5.11 ERA there. Not a good sign. His issue has always been about throwing strikes. His stuff is good, he has a live arm, but he can't throw the ball over the plate consistently. As a result, while he can look impressive for stretches, he has never been able to sustain success. With an arm like that, you keep getting chances, but it looks like a year at Louisville for Gallagher. | Mariekson Julius Gregorius, called Didi, was born in the Netherlands. (Bad pun ahead) According to scouting reports he is a true Dutch master with the glove (told you). Actually, the family is from Curacao, and that's where he grew up, but he was born in Amsterdam. The left-handed hitter and right-handed thrower could play in the majors now if he didn't have to swing the bat. That part of his game does seem to be coming along. In his pro debut at age 18 in the Gulf Coast League he batted a mere .155 with no extra-base hits, but hit .315 in 50 games at Billings the next year. 2010 at Dayton brought a .273 average. In 2011 he was limited to just 84 games, spending the first two months of the season on the disabled list, but hit .303 in 46 games in Bakersfield and .270 in 38 games at Carolina. The question will be whether to start him at Carolina again in 2012, or to jump him to Louisville at age 22. I suspect he starts the year in double-A but shortstop is one spot in Cincinnati that is open. A good start by Gregorius could see him becoming the regular in Cincinnati by midseason, should Zack Cozart struggle or get hurt again. It's a longshot, but it could happen. The kid can certainly play defense. | Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Like last year, Cardinal blog C70 at the Bat has interviewed other bloggers of NL Central teams. I was part of this. You can read that entry here. | Catcher Ryan Hanigan is now the veteran of the receiving tandem, sharing with rookie Devin Mesoraco. His playing time will depend a lot on the success of the youngster. Hanigan figures to retain his strengths of on-base and defense, along with his weaknesses of little power and poor durability. Hanigan is not completely without power; he has 16 home runs in 815 major league at bats. For the last three seasons he has shared the Reds' catching job with Ramon Hernandez. It is not a coincidence that his best year, 2010, was the year he played least. Hanigan is listed at six feet and 200 pounds and that is probably a bit generous. He doesn't hold up well to the punishment of catching every day. For a couple of times a week, he is a big help. Likely Hanigan will be assigned a starter or two in the rotation to work with, and the choice of catcher will depend on the starting pitcher. That's reasonable, and helps keep both guys fresh. It's a role for which Hanigan is well-suited. | Georgia native Willie Harris is of the same body type as former Red Lanny Harris, and has a similar career path. Both are left-handed hitters who make a living as bench players playing multiple positions. This Harris is not quite as stocky as his predecessor and his game is more speed-based. Willie has 106 career steals, though at age 33 (34 in June) that part of his game is disappearing. This guy used to beat the ball into the ground and try to run it out, but the last few years has worked on getting it into the air more often and has thus added more power to his game. The best part of Harris's offensive game is his ability to draw walks. His career batting average is a mere .240 but his on-base is .330, and last year with the Mets it was .351. If he can get on base like that then he is valuable off the bench, and a left-handed alternative to the left field group as well as insurance against a Scott Rolen absence for a prolonged period. His 2010 with Washington was poor, though, with just a .183 average, and his end may be nearing. Harris is battling for a bench spot, probably with Todd Frazier. His job would be fifth outfielder and sometime infielder, as well as lefty on-base pinch-hitter. He'll have to show his skills are still sufficient for the majors. | It looked for a while like Pennsylvania native Chris Heisey would be the Reds' regular left fielder in 2012. Then Ryan Ludwick was signed, raising questions about Heisey's playing time. Chances are Heisey now becomes the fourth OF for 2012, but he will get significant time in left field. How will that work? Heisey was drafted in the 17th round of the 2006 draft. He wasn't regarded as a hot prospect but worked his way up the organizational ladder, showing good averages plus some power and speed. In 2009 he hit .314 between double-A and triple-A with 22 homers and got his name on the map. He started 2010 at triple-A but soon got a call to the big club. Heisey hit .254 with 8 homers in 201 AB for Cincinnati in 2010, then .254 with 18 homers in 279 AB in 2011. He hasn't shown the same base-stealing skills in the majors as the minors, and hasn't been as good at getting on base. He has shown good power, and is a good defensive outfielder, stretched a bit in center but good in either corner. Heisey, now 27, figures to get a fair amount of playing time this season. He needs to up his walk rate to be a more effective hitter. Right now Heisey makes too many outs to be a real force at the plate. He does make for a good fourth OF, but the Reds may need him to be a regular, especially if Ludwick struggles. | Monday, February 27, 2012
Ah, the rise and fall of Paul Janish. At this time last year, he had played well down the stretch of a pennant drive and held the shortstop job in his hands. Then the season began, and he dropped it. Now, he must fight to stay in the majors as a backup. Janish has always been the definition of good field, no hit. He hit .261 as a minor leaguer. For Cincinnati, he hit .188 in 38 games in 2008, then .211 in 90 games as a backup in 2009. He spent most of 2010 on the bench as a backup to veteran Orlando Cabrera, while manager Dusty Baker frustrated fans by playing Cabrera even when he was visibly hurting and Janish would have been a better choice. Janish finally got a chance later in the season when Cabrera went on the disabled list at last. The Reds just expected good defense, yet Janish gave them a .260 batting average in 200 at bats, and five homers for good measure. A 723 OPS with that kind of defense is plenty good enough, so the Reds made plans for 2011 for Janish to be their shortstop. Janish lost the job, batting just .214 in 2011. Veteran Edgar Renteria got more playing time, then Zack Cozart got a shot, and just when he was impressing he got hurt. It was back to Renteria, with Janish backing up. Now Renteria is gone, and Cozart is pencilled in as the 2012 starter. Janish must battle veteran Wilson Valdez for the backup shortstop position. Expectations for the 29 year old infielder are low. He could end up back in Louisville for at least a portion of the year. All in all, I would rather have Janish on the bench than Valdez, but the Reds may think otherwise. | Daryl Jones signed a minor league contract with the Reds after becoming a six-year minor league free agent from the Cardinals organization. Jones has terrific athleticism, but has had trouble translating that into performance on a baseball field. He was a high school track star specializing in the long jump. Jones has shown terrific speed, but that has not translated into stolen bases or defensive performance. The Cardinals finally raised him to triple-A last year, in the second half, and he hit a nondescript .250 in 53 games. Jones is just a guy, an excellent athlete with limited baseball skills. He might be able to help out Louisville, but Cincinnati will be another matter. | The Reds have signed their new left-handed reliever Sean Marshall to a three-year contract extension that starts next season. It will run 2013-2015. The total value is $16.5 million, or an average of #5.5 million per season, with some incentives that could raise it. Not a bad deal for a pitcher of Marshall's caliber. | Sunday, February 26, 2012
Donnie Joseph is a left-handed minor league pitcher for the Reds at 24 years old. The Texas native was picked by Cincinnati in the third round of the 2009 draft. The reliever had good years in A-ball in 2009 and 2010, but struggled in double-A in 2011. He was just 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA for Carolina last year. In spite of that high ERA Joseph had some good numbers, with 10.2 strikeouts per nine and a 2.20 K/W ratio. He gave up more hits than he had before, which could be hitting a ceiling at a higher level, or it could be a function of luck. He has a good fastball and a slider, but needs to throw the slider for strikes consistently. Getting a breaking ball over is a key for many minor league pitchers. If he can manage it, Joseph could become that valuable commodity, the lefty power reliever. If not, he'll bounce around the minors forever. Look for him to repeat double-A and try to find his command. | Josh Judy has an unusual pedigree for a member of a 40-man roster. He was born and raised in Morgantown, WV, which is the home of West Virginia University. But his college was the Indiana Institute of Technology, not exactly a baseball hotbed. He was a 34th round pick, by the Indians in 2007. He climbed through the minor leagues in four year's time, posting a 26-8 minor league record (including a 12-1 year in 2008) and a 2.81 minor league ERA, with a 6-2 record and 3.12 ERA at triple-A Columbus in 2011. He pitched 14 innings for the Indians in 2011, with 10 strikeouts and four walks. Yet he was placed on waivers, where the Reds picked him up. There are warning signs. He allowed four home runs in those 14 big league innings. That looks like an anomaly. He has a low-90s fastball that can sometimes get into the mid-90s, a good slider, and a changeup that is still a work in progress. He's 26 and has good minor league results, plus still has options left. He figures to pitch for Louisville this year but could see some time in Cincinnati. | Friday, February 24, 2012
He's the hired gun brought in by the Reds to be the ace of the staff. Sure, it was a trade, and Johnny Cueto is the titular ace for the team, but it is Mat Latos that will need to shoulder a major portion of the load in giving the Reds enough pitching to reach the 2012 postseason, and to go deep into it. Latos was 9-14 for a bad San Diego team in 2011, but had a 3.47 ERA. That was after a 14-10, 2.92 year in 2010. The Reds are hoping for more of that in 2012, and not afraid of moving the pitcher from the best pitchers' park in baseball to one of the best parks for offense. That's largely because Latos has had little in the way of ballpark splits. His away numbers are just as good. Part of that is Latos being a big guy who pitches big. He's six-six and has a big fastball and excellent breaking stuff. At 24, he has "ace" written all over him. The Reds will need him to fulfill that potential if they want to achieve their goals. | Mike Leake is not very big...the six-foot-one, 185 pounds he is listed at is quite generous...and not terribly durable. But he has excellent command of four good pitches, and a chance to be a very good starter in the big leagues. The Reds will go with it. Leake was 12-9 with a 3.86 ERA last year in 26 starts, 168 innings. Cincinnati would like to see him get to 200 innings this year. It will take some work and some care, but it would certainly help the pennant drive. Leake was a key member of the 2010 division champs, keeping the rotation afloat in the early going, before fading about halfway through the season and being shut down in August. He lasted longer in 2011 but still faded. Conditioning and stamina will be the key. Leake has a lot of promise, but to deliver he will have to be able to make his 33 starts, and start going deeper into games. The deeper, improved bullpen will help alleviate the deep games need for 2012, but that need will increase with time. Leake is talented enough to be a key part for a winning team, and his development is a central issue for the Reds this year. | Tuesday, February 21, 2012
The guy with four decent pitches but no great ones, Sam Lecure parlayed his "pitchability" into a major league spot last year, posting a 2-1 record and 3.71 ERA in 43 games, including four emergency starts. Lecure figures to have a roster spot all year this year, and fill the same role: middle reliever and emergency starter. Lecure is 27, will turn 28 in May. He's not young. He does have a decent arm, and shows moxie on the mound. He doesn't give in even to the best hitters. The 73 strikeouts in 78 innings were a pleasant surprise. That's pitching over your stuff. Lecure figures to fall back a bit in 2012, but he isn't going to be asked to fill a key role. Mostly he will soak up innings. Still, it is nice to have a guy you can bring in when you are behind, who can keep the other team in check while you mount a comeback. That's Sam Lecure's role. | Monday, February 20, 2012
Kyle Lotzkar is a Canadian picked up in the extended first round of the 2007 draft by the Reds as the 53rd overall pick. He has been regarded as a hot prospect, but missed the entire 2009 season after arm surgery. Lotzkar had a good pro debut in 2007, then pitched pretty well in ten starts for Dayton in 2008 before being sidelined by a hairline fracture in his elbow. Then he missed all of 2009 for "Tommy John" ligament replacement surgery. The Reds started working in earnest to calm his violent mechanics and prevent further injury. So far, so good. 2010 was about getting his arm back in shape at rookie levels, then in 2011 he got back into it with an assignment to Dayton. He made 14 starts, going 3-2 with a 4.32 ERA. The Reds didn't let him get very far into games or throw many pitches, but at 21 he was appropriate for age level. In 67 innings he struck out 72 and walked 25. It was good enough to get the Reds to put him on the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, as clubs always look for live arms like this. The best case scenario is that Lotzkar develops into a full-blown ace. More likely, he becomes a power arm out of the bullpen. The Reds will play it safe for a couple of years, then see where he works best. Expect him in single-A Bakersfield this year at age 22. | Veteran Ryan Ludwick signed with the Reds and his old St. Louis GM, Walt Jocketty, to try and revive his career. In 2011 Ludwick hit just .237 with 11 homers. All involve hope that a switch to the more hitter-friendly park in Cincinnati will revive his bat. Ludwick is 33 and will turn 34 in July. He is still pretty good defensively in an outfield corner, but the concern is that his bat has slowed too much. He was never really a great hitter anyway, except for his career year in 2008 with the Cardinals. The Reds are not really counting on him to be an everyday player, just a part-time source of power. It's something of a longshot, as many players of his type are done at this age. If Ludwick was being brought in as more of a straight platoon player, things would look a bit brighter, but he will likely alternate with fellow right-handed hitter Chris Heisey. Ludwick could be finished. The Reds hope he still has some power production left. Perhaps as a part-timer, he will. | Donald Lutz is a 23-year old native of Watertown, New York. A big first baseman at six-feet-four and 230 pounds, he hit .301 with 20 homers and 75 RBI for Dayton last year. That's the good news. The bad news is that he was playing in Dayton at age 22, somewhat old for the league. If he had put up those stats in double-A, he'd be a decent prospect. Doing it at that age in the Midwest League is not so encouraging. The question is whether the team will assign the big left-handed hitter to single-A at Bakersfield, or challenge him with a spot at double-A. Lutz would like to be in line for the first base job when Joey Votto departs, but he will have to up his game to push his way to the head of that line. The odds are against him. | Sunday, February 19, 2012
Ryan Madson feels like a young guy, but he is 31 years old and will turn 32 near the end of August. His major league career began with one game in 2003. He's been around for a long time, throwing hard and with ever-increasing control. Madson finally got a shot as a full-time closer last year with the Phillies, and had great results: 4-2, 32 saves, and a 2.37 ERA. For some reason, the Phillies waffled on signing him long-term, and instead inked former Boston closer Jon Papelbon to a four-year deal. Madson found himself losing a game of musical relievers, and finally signed a one-year deal with the Reds to try and re-enter the market after 2012. Cincinnati officials couldn't have been more thrilled: they got a star-level closer at a relative bargain price. Madson has experience, stuff, and what they call a "closer's mentality." He also has postseason experience. For a team with October aspirations, Madson is a excellent pickup, and the 9th inning should be in very good hands. | Ron Mahay is a veteran lefty relievers, age 40, turning 41 at the end of June. He is a longshot to make the major league roster, with Sean Marshall and Bill Bray inhabiting the big league lefty bullpen roles. Mahay, at this point in his career, is a LOOGY: a lefty one-out guy. He's the type of fellow you bring in to face one tough left-handed hitter, then take him out. The punters of MLB. Mahay did not pitch in the big leagues at all in 2011: in 2010 he had a 3.44 ERA in 31 innings for Minnesota. He pitched for three minor league teams in 2011 with limited success. He may well have run out of gas. At any rate, his odds of seeing any time in Cincinnati this season are slim. | Sean Marshall came up and reached the majors as a starter, but for the last two years the tall, slim lefty has been one of the top relievers in the majors. Pitching off his excellent curveball, Marshall has been one of the unsung talents of the NL, and now he gets to be part of the Reds' pennant push for 2012. The Richmond, Virginia native is 29 and will turn 30 at the end of August. He was 7-5 with a 2.65 ERA in 2010 for the Cubs, then 6-6 with a 2.26 ERA in 2011. The Reds swapped four young players to Chicago to get him, seeing him as a valuable piece of the contending puzzle. He certainly has been effective and durable as a late-inning reliever for the Cubs. Marshall will take over setup duties in Cincinnati, working mostly in the 8th inning. He will be counted on as a shutdown guy for the lefties in the NL Central and elsewhere, and also to get righthanders out. He has shown every evidence that he is up to the task. The Reds will need him to live up to his reputation. | Nick Masset has pitched for the Reds for three years, and has pitched worse each year. Actually it's a little more than three years: in ten games in 2008, he had a 2.08 ERA for Cincinnati. In 2009, he was 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA. In 2010, he was 4-4 with a 3.40 ERA. In 2011, he was 3-6 with a 3.71 ERA. In each of the last two years, he has gotten off to a slow start. After 2009, he was regarded as a future closer. That no longer seems the case. The 240-pound native of St. Petersburg, Florida is 29 now and will turn 30 in May. His role in 2012 will be more like his role in 2009: with the acquisition of two new late-inning relievers, Masset gets pushed back to more work in the 7th frame. He will be part of the "M&M&M boys" late-inning crew with closer Ryan Madson and setup man Sean Marshall. Masset's near-future earnings will be strongly tied to how he does this season and next. He is signed for $2.4 million for 2012, $3.1 million for 2013, and then hits free agency. He will have to turn around his trend of rising ERAs to get good money after this deal expires. | It's pitchers and catchers report day! The media tells us that all who were expected are in camp. Physicals in the morning, followed by a light opening workout. This is way better than a groundhog. | Friday, February 17, 2012
Devin Mesoraco is 23, and will turn 24 in June. He is slated to be the Reds' starting catcher during their pennant drive of 2012. Mesoraco was a first round pick in 2007, but showed poor conditioning and lousy results his first three years in the minors. The Reds moved him up the ladder anyway, following the path from the Gulf Coast League to Dayton to Sarasota. For 2010, the Reds kept him in high-A ball, though the team was now at Lynchburg of the Carolina League. Repeating the level, Mesoraco hit .335 in 43 games. Sensing mission accomplished, the Reds moved him up to double-A at Carolina. In 56 games there he hit .294. He played 14 games with Louisville to round out the year. The question for 2011 was whether he could continue the production. The answer was yes, as Mesoraco played a full year at Louisville and hit .289 with 15 homers and 71 RBI. Mesoraco played in 18 games at Cincinnati and was 9-for-50, just hitting .180, but with two home runs. It was a chance to get his feet wet, but he will dive in to start 2012. The Reds will need him to produce at least a decent season as the catcher for a contender. At the top of his range Mesoraco will contend for the Rookie of the Year award. The Reds would take a mid-range year with some homers and a decent average as long as the defense is good. | Corky Miller has 504 major league at bats, and a .188 lifetime batting average. He's around because everyone likes him, he does a good job defensively, and he works well with pitchers. Miller has a job as long as he wants one, and after he is done playing he will go into coaching. He'll probably be a manager some day. Miller's job this year will be the same as last year. He will be the backup catcher at Louisville and insurance against injuries to the catching corps. Right now he's just marking time until his managerial career starts. | We reverse a bit in our alphabetical journey, as the Reds have just signed veteran pitcher Brett Tomko to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Tomko began his professional career with the Reds, after being picked in the second round of the 1995 draft, and pitching his first three big league seasons with the Reds, before going to Seattle in the Ken Griffey, Jr. trade. Tomko is 38 and will turn 39 in April. He never was a really good pitcher, though he wasn't bad in his prime. He pitched most of 2011 at triple-A Round Rock, going 9-6 with a 6.15 ERA. He made eight relief appearances for Texas, posting a 4.58 ERA. Reds fans on Twitter got a bit upset, but Tomko figures to work in 2011 like he did in 2012: most of the year in triple-A but brief stops in the majors when injuries strike. Don't expect much, unless you follow Louisville. | Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Venezuela native Dioner Navarro is in spring camp for the Reds as a non-roster player. He figures to be the regular at Louisville, and one call in case of an injury to Devin Mesoraco or Ryan Hanigan. With Ramon Hernandez gone via free agency and Yasmani Grandal traded, the Reds went looking for some catching help in case of emergency and were able to bring in Navarro on a minor league deal. He's played 602 major league games, but the short and squat backstop hit just .193 for the Dodgers as a backup last year, and .194 for Tampa Bay the year before. Navarro is better known for his glove work, but did have a stellar year in 2008 for the Rays, batting .295 and making the AL All-Star team. That year was an outlier, though, as his career major league average is .244, and of course the last two years have been very poor. A year at Louisville might give Navarro a chance to rebuild his rep--I'm sure he's hoping for that--and he makes decent insurance for the likely possibility that one of the other catchers gets hurt during the season. There are far worse, and more expensive, insurance policies. | Kristopher Negron is an infielder in the Reds minor league system, 26 years old, acquired in 2009 in the deal that sent Alex Gonzalez to Boston. Negron had a rough 2011, batting just .216 at Louisville. It's a bit of an upset that, at his age, he didn't just get released, but he has remained on the Reds' 40-man roster. Negron had been doing much better than that, batting .260 or .270 with a little power (two years of 11 homers) and good stolen base totals. It all went sour on him last year. He'll have to revive his stock in the organization, and that starts from the first day of spring training. The Reds have enough players that if Negron doesn't look any better in the spring than he did last year, he could get dumped. It's something of a surprise he wasn't outrighted off the roster in one of the moves to make a spot...such as for Ryan Ludwick, when Carlos Fisher was dumped instead (though Carlos is back on a minor league deal now...we'll get to him later). Negron does not seem to have been hurt, just horrible. He will have to get his swing back together to have any sort of future in baseball. | Tuesday, February 14, 2012
The big fellow from Texas had his second straight year of success in the Cincinnati bullpen, and Logan Ondrusek will be back in middle relief for the Reds in 2012. He followed up a 3.68 ERA in 2010 with a 3.23 mark in 2011, and his overall performance was about the same. Ondrusek's strikeout rate remained the same in 2011 as 2010. His walk rate ticked up, but that was mostly a function of having more intentional walks ordered while he was on the mound last year: his actual walks were just a bit higher. He allowed more hits, but fewer homers. The six-eight righty does not have exceptional stuff, but shows a low-90s fastball, changeup, and slider, and keeps the ball down to get groundballs. With that height, he does get a great downward plane to the plate. He'll be a fine middle reliever for as long as he stays healthy. | Brandon Phillips moved to the leadoff spot in the second half of 2011 and had one of his strongest seasons, batting .300 with 18 homers, 82 RBI, and 94 runs scored, and most importantly posting a .353 on-base average. It's the best mark for a season of his whole career. Since he will likely lead off again in 2012, the Reds will need him to do it again. Can he? His walks stayed about the same, it was a jump in his batting average to .300 that also jumped his on-base by 20 points. That will be hard to duplicate, and if Phillips contributes his usual .330-area on-base average, he will be much less valuable in the leadoff spot. His defense should remain well above average. The next question is whether the Reds should talk extension with Phillips. His contract is up at the end of this season, and his $13 million-ish salary would likely go up in any deal. In addition, Phillips is 30, and will turn 31 at mid-season. To how many years would the Reds have to commit to sign Phillips, and in how many of those will he be productive? Much of his value now is defensive: 2011 was his best offensive season, and is not likely to be repeated. He should be at All-Star level for a couple more years, but after that the odds get longer. I would be willing to let Phillips go after this year, assuming he would not sign a short contract of two or three years. He seems likely to seek four or five, which would be a dangerous investment, especially for a small-market team. The risk is also in finding a replacement, of course: Chris Valaika is not near the standard of Phillips, and it is still unsure how Henry Rodriguez will produce. It seems that the decision about pursuing Phillips could well depend on the performance of Rodriguez in the minors. | Monday, February 13, 2012
Dominican native Denis Phipps was a run-of-the-mill minor leaguer, showing a little power, stealing a few bases, hitting a healthy number of doubles, but not impressing. That changed in 2011, as he hit .328 in 82 games at double-A Carolina, then .380 in 40 games at triple-A Louisville. It was an amazing, shocking breakout. The only thing that changed for the now 26-year old is the frequency of his singles. His doubles, triples, and homers changed very little. His walks and strikeouts were roughly the same. It's hard to pick out a reason why Phipps suddenly became a .300-plus hitter. It's even harder to figure out if this is a one-year spike, or a new level of performance. He is a long-shot for the Opening Day roster, but figures to go to Louisville as the Reds watch to see whether he can do it again. | Chad Reineke pitched in two games, starting one, for the Reds in 2011 and gave up six runs, five earned, in 6 2/3 innings. The native of Defiance and Miami U. alum with turn 30 just after the season starts, and now has a 5.76 ERA in 30 major league innings. Reineke was 9-7 with a 3.84 ERA with Louisville in 2011, after a 9-9, 3.91 season there in 2010. He has a 3.97 minor league ERA and that about says it. He's replacement level, not going to be a big star, an extra arm. Reineke does not project as a member of the Reds' roster in 2011, unless, as last year, there is an emergency. An insurance policy....with a team in your home state. There are worse career options. | |
