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Thursday, October 02, 2008
In our series looking at the Cincinnati Reds 2008 season, we now come to the defense. Defense is the most difficult to analyze, and therefore most misunderstood, component of the game. We will try to sort through the confusion to arrive at the truth. Experts in the field will tell you that judging fielders by errors and fielding percentage is a fool's game, because the error stat is based on one man's judgment, the official scorer. Plus, the game has changed so much that the error stat simply doesn't mean what it used to mean. It is much better to judge a fielder by how many plays he makes, the number known as Range Factor. Even RF is subject to influence, however. Parks enter into it, since some have larger foul territory, or smaller outfields, or quirky dimensions. On top of that, players on good teams tend to have lower range factors than those on bad teams, overall. The major reason for this is that good teams tend to have good pitching staffs. Good pitching staffs generally have more strikeouts, and therefore fewer balls in play on which fielders can make a play. So, generally, a good team provides fewer opportunities for its fielders. We can account for this, of course. However, how much do we need to account for it with the Reds of 2008? The staff was only 13th in the league in ERA, but finished fourth in the league in strikeouts. So, we should not make much allowance, if any, for the Reds' range factors. A telling stat is that the Reds had a .275 batting average against, 3rd worst in the league behind Pittsburgh and Colorado. That speaks of a poor defense. Generally, teams high in strikeouts are also low in BAA. Reds pitching had 1227 strikeouts. All other teams with 1150 or more, and there were five of them, were in the top six of BAA (lowest). The exception was Milwaukee. So, it's reasonable to say the Reds had a bad defense in 2008. This has been true for several years. Opening the season with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. as the corner outfielders, the Reds had to know that things were not likely to improve. The team had tried to address the defense issue by signing shortstop Alex Gonzalez as a free agent, but he ended up missing the entire 2008 season with an injury. Thsi wasn't going to be pretty. First baseman Joey Votto was a pleasant surprise, playing solid defense in his rookie season. Votto led NL 1B in assists, a sign of range and quality. His RF was low, but this isn't a big deal for a 1B, who depends on other infielders for many of his chances. His Zone Rating, according to espn.com, was fourth in the league among regular 1B, behind Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Adrian Gonzalez. That's pretty good company. Second baseman Brandon Phillips is probably the team's best defensive player, and he led regular 2B in fielding percentage. Remember, of course, that FP is not a good fielding measure. The team's broadcasters were pumping him for the Gold Glove, and he wouldn't be a bad choice, even though he was middle of the pack for his position. His Zone Rating was behind only Chase Utley, who is not an acknowledged master of the position. Frankly, I'd give the award to Utley for the year, but Phillips was good, too. Shortstop was a mishmash for the Reds in 2008, with Jeff Keppinger doing most of the work. Keppinger is not a shortstop, does not have the range for the position. His 4.00 RF and .786 ZR are well down the list, although he is about even with Arizona's Stephen Drew. Jerry Hairston fared better at 4.28 and .817, but was still very low on the list. The best shortstops, like Colorado's Troy Tulowitski, have RFs about 5 and ZR numbers around .850. That's about the level of Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson. Paul Janish, with 4.80 and .833 numbers, showed himself as a solid defensive shortstop in his rookie year. Likewise, Edwin Encarnacion did not fare well. He was next-to-last among regular NL third basemen (there were 11 of them) in Range Factor and in Zone Rating. The normal stationing of two bad defensive players on the left side of the Cincy infield made for a big hole in the defense. And we haven't even gotten to the known-to-be bad outfield yet. Corey Patterson was signed before the season for two reasons; to be the leadoff hitter (a bad idea) and to cover the center garden between the two sluggers (not a bad idea). As it turned out, the need was not as great as expected. Adam Dunn in left field actually had his best defensive year as a big leaguer. Dunn led regular left fielders in Range Factor. It wasn't a particularly good year for NL left fielders, but Dunn was at least average in the field before he was traded away. Chris Dickerson, who mostly replaced him, had a lower RF but his Zone Rating was better, as sometimes happens. Others who manned the position did not do as well, but sample size was small. Center field, like shortstop, was another position in flux for Cincinnati. Patterson was second among regular CF in Range Factor, and first in Zone Rating, but didn't hit. Ryan Freel did about as well. Jay Bruce was in the middle of the pack, while Jerry Hairston came in low. Dickerson really didn't play enough to get good data. Right field was weak with Griffey out there. That made it even harder to understand when the White Sox used him mostly in center field. Jay Bruce did solid work in RF, and no one else played there much. Catcher was another position of change. Measuring catcher defense is tough. The team ERA was best with Ryan Hanigan catching, with Paul Bako close behind. Dave Ross and Javier Valentin were much higher. Of course, Bako did nearly all the catching of Edinson Volquez' starts, and he had the best ERA by far of the starters. As far as throwing out runners, Hanigan was the best again at 35%, followed by Ross and Bako at 29%. Valentin didn't get any, but allowed just one steal. Overall, the defense was not good. Using Hanigan as the catcher next year should help, and so would getting a real shortstop, or using Janish. Janish's bat, however, is suspect. The Reds also need a center fielder who can get the ball. Like Patterson, except one who can hit. |
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