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Saturday, October 04, 2008
We have looked at how the Reds did in 2008. Now, how will they look in 2009? Probably a lot different. Already, the team that ended 2008 was much changed from the team that started the season. The two biggest names on the club, slugging outfielders Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn, were dealt during the campaign. So, by any definition, the team that comes out of spring training in 2009 will be a very different one from the club that opened 2008. But with a large number of free agents, plus a number of players eligible for arbitration that are not likely to be offered contracts for the new season, the team will have a lot of turnover. The Reds have nine guys whose contracts are up and on whom they have no hold, who are now "free agents." Those are: pitchers Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Mike Lincoln, Kent Mercker, and David Weathers; catchers Paul Bako and Javier Valentin; OF Corey Patterson; and utilityman Jerry Hairston. It is entirely possible that none of this crew will return for 2009. Of the group, Mercker has signaled that he will retire. Of the other eight, a guess suggests that the Reds would like to bring back Affeldt, Weathers, and Hairston, and possibly Lincoln and Valentin. They may also decide they want to bring back Bako. Fogg and Patterson are likely to try their luck elsewhere. Then, there are the guys eligible for arbitration: Matt Belisle, Jolbert Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Majewski, and Andy Phillips. Minor league veterans Cabrera and Phillips will not be offered arbitration, no way, no how. Belisle and Majewski, disappointing pitchers, both seem likely to be non-tendered, that is, not offered contracts. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Encarnacion was the only one offered a contract, and the rest were cut loose. I also wouldn't be surprsied if the other four were offered contracts at a low-ball price, to bring them back. It's just hard to see the team taking a chance with an arbitrator who might award the bit players more than the Reds are willing to play. There are currently 47 guys on the Reds "40-man" roster, with seven of them (Belisle, Fogg, Mercker, Alex Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper) on the 60-day disabled list so they don't count against the total. Those guys have to come off the DL before the Winter Meetings in December, but with all the free agents and expected non-tenders, that shouldn't be a problem. I count nine free agents and two to four non-tenders, leaving 11 to 13 roster spots open. That also leaves room for minor leaguers who need to be added to the roster so they are not claimed in the Rule 5 draft. We'll look up who that is shortly. |
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