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Friday, November 28, 2008
The Cincinnati baseball writers have named Joey Votto the team's top player, and Edinson Volquez the top pitcher for 2008. No surprises there, and reasonable selections. Were they the right selections? One way to tell is with Baseball Prospectus' WARP measure, Wins Against Replacement Player. It is a measure that attempts to include a player's batting, fielding, and pitching accomplishments all into one number. In that way, it is similar to Win Shares, but I think WARP does a superior job. Invented by Clay Davenport, meteorologist by day, baseball writer by night, it does a nice job of putting everything together. According to the WARP1 measure, the most valuable Red in 2008 had a 7.0 rating: seven wins above a replacement level. That was achieved by....Edinson Volquez. If you thought Volquez was the most important member of the Reds last season, WARP agrees with you. Next, with a 6.6 rating.....is Joey Votto. So, yes, it appears the team's writers were correct. Next on the list at 6.5 is Brandon Phillips. Phillips may well have exceeded Votto had he not been hurt for the last part of the season. Those guys were the only ones over a six. Next in line was Francisco Cordero at 5.8, followed by Bronson Arroyo at 5.1, Adam Dunn at 4.6, Aaron Harang 3.7, David Weathers 3.5, Johnny Cueto 3.4, and Jerry Hairston 3.0. Edwin Encarancion posted just a 2.8, dragged down by poor defense. For comparison, 10 is an MVP level, 7 or 8 and above is an All-Star, Over 4 a solid contributor as a regular, and it goes down from there. To put it another way, there were a lot of positions where the Reds were not getting much help beyond replacement level. |
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